Last week, a study published in Nature found that the climate pledges made at COP26 last December have the potential to limit warming to just below 2°C (3.6°F) from pre-industrial levels (Nature). However, this will only happen if countries work now to develop and implement policies to back the pledges they made last year. Specifically, countries will need to meet their targets both to curb emissions by 2030 and to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century in order to limit warming to 1.9-2°C. As of now, the policies actually in place would likely mean a peak of 2.6°C, which would cause major damages worldwide (Guardian).

This represents the first time governments have pledged targets that could hold temperatures below the 2°C threshold; however, the same study also found that there is only a 6-10% chance of reaching the 1.5°C target. At this point, according to a researcher from the Centre for International Climate Research, if the world is going to reach 1.5°C, it will be because it surpasses that target and comes back down to it. Warming above 1.5°C is “very dangerous for the world, particularly for people living in small island nations and developing states” (BBC). A 2°C-warmer planet will still be impacted by “fiercer storms, higher seas, animal and plant extinctions, disappearing coral, melting ice and more people dying from heat, smog and infectious disease” (AP News). However, the possibility of keeping to 2°C warming is considered historic, and governments would need to implement policies and meet their emissions reduction targets to reach this global climate goal and make 2°C a reality.