Financially Equivalent but Behaviorally Distinct? Pollution Tax and Cap-and-Trade Negotiations

October 2022
Citation:
52
ELR 10809
Issue
10
Author
Hajin Kim and K.C. Payne Hirsch

Economic theory suggests that pollution tax and cap-and-trade regulations can be functionally equivalent. Environmentalists tend to prefer the firm emissions cap in cap-and-trade programs, while economists and business interests tend to prefer the price certainty of tax programs. But both may be overlooking behavioral distinctions between the two policies. Using a novel randomized case experiment, this Article tests whether the framing changes negotiated policies. It finds that negotiators reach more environmentally protective policies under the tax rather than the cap-and-trade frame, a finding which comports with real-world observations that carbon taxes tend to be higher than permit prices in carbon cap-and-trade programs. The findings have two important implications. First, negotiators treat pollution tax and cap-and-trade regulations differently—they are not psychologically equivalent. Second, contrary to the general environmentalist preference for cap and trade, taxes may generate greater environmental protection.

Hajin Kim is an Assistant Professor at the University of Chicago Law School. K.C. Payne Hirsch is a Postdoctoral Scholar at the Standard Doerr School of Sustainability.

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