The Changing Congress: Your Scorecard for the November Elections

Jonathan W. Delano

Jonathan W. Delano is a partner in the law firm of Eckert, Seamans, Cherin & Mellott in its government relations group based in Washington, D.C. Mr. Delano worked for 14 years in the House of Representatives and was president of the House Administrative Assistants Association, a nonpartisan group that represents congressional chiefs of staff.

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As important as is the outcome of the presidential race this November, environmental lawyers, lobbyists, and advocates who watch Congress are keenly aware that the simultaneous congressional elections on November 3 are key to the nature and success of an environmental agenda in the next two years.

The committees that regulate the environment in the House of Representatives can be expected to change substantially in the 103d Congress, while the Senate appears, for the moment, to be a bit more stable. That much is certain. What is less clear is who will benefit from the expected turnover in the key committees.

Take the Senate first. With only one-third of the senators up for reelection and relatively few retirements, the likelihood is for minimal change on the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. As we go to print, there is, however, considerable speculation about the health of its chairman, the 84-year-old North Dakota Democrat, Quentin Burdick. With continuing illnesses and hospitalization, local newspapers in his home state have called on Burdick to resign, which would likely propel Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-N.Y.) to the chairmanship. Capitol Hill insiders say Moynihan would be more active than Burdick, but he is likely to follow the same pattern of deferring to subcommittee chairpersons like Sens. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and Frank Lautenber (D-N.J.) who generally take the lead on environmental issues.

Assuming Burdick remains, the only known departure from this committee is Sen. Steve Symms (R-Ind.), who announced his retirement last year. Among the remaining 16 Committee members, only two are up for reelection this year: Senators Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Bob Graham (D-Fla.). Both are regarded as likely winners this November, although Democrat Graham could face a stronger challenge in a state inclined to vote Republican.

The current ratio of Democrats to Republicans on this Committee, 10 to 7, is not likely to change much in the 103d Congress. Most analysts think the full Senate is unlikely to shift more than one or two seats from its current 57 to 43 Democratic line-up. While seats may change hands — competitive Senate races are likely in California, Georgia, New York, North and South Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — the overall ratio should not change much.

The more interesting body to watch is the House of Representatives, where over 120 new members are expected to be elected this November. The House could reach a high of 140 new members and perhaps come close to the twentieth-century record of 165 freshmen members set when Franklin D. Roosevelt was swept into office in 1932.

Political pundits seem to universally believe that the Republicans will pick up at least a dozen seats, maybe as many as 25, because of Democratic retirements and a national reapportionment that has transferred seats from the cities to the suburbs. Much remains volatile because of the presidential election, but assuming a 20-seat GOP pick-up, the House will remain Democratic, perhaps 245 to 190.

The expected Republican gains in the House have given rise to the notion of a new conservative coalition with southern Democrats, reminiscent of the first Reagan years. But the House in 1993 is likely to be markedly different. For example, there will be at least 15 more Latino and African-American members added to the current 33 members. The number of women is also likely to increase. Finally, all new members will be classic "outsiders" determined to bring "change" and buck the status quo. That is why the leaders of both parties in the House are scrambling to shore up their support for expected challenges when the party caucuses meet to pick House leaders in December.

While it is always difficult to predict the environmental predisposition of 435 House members not yet elected or reelected, Sen. Albert Gore's vice presidential nomination for Vice President amidst charges by the incumbent Vice President that Gore is an "environmental extremist" suggests an increased national focus on environmental issues. Some observers think that, with Republican gains in the House, this incredibly large freshmen class, despite a greater number of women and minorities, is likely to be more conservative on economic and budget issues and more liberal on social issues.

In the House, the most interesting committee affecting environmental legislation to watch is always the House Energy and Commerce Committee, chaired by Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.). If the Republicans gain House seats, watch the ratio tighten on this Committee where a few votes can make a big difference. The current 27 Democrats to 16 Republicans could easily change to 24 Democrats to 19 Republicans, giving the GOP a chance to forge alliances on key environmental initiatives.

Second, at least 10 percent of this Committee will be new. Retirements or primary defeats by Reps. Jim Scheuer (D-N.Y.), Dennis Eckart (D-Ohio), Terry Bruce (D-Ill.), Claude Harris (D-Ala.), Norman Lent (R-N.Y.), and William Dannemeyer (R-Cal.) guarantee new faces on both sides of the aisle.

But this is only the first cut. A number of incumbents on the Energy and Commerce Committee have difficult races, including Reps. Phil Sharp (D-Ind.), Gerry Sikorski (D-Minn.), Tom McMillen (D-Md.), Gerry Studds (D-Mass.), Peter Kostmayer (D-Pa.), Don Ritter (R-Pa.), and Mike Bilirakis (R-Fla.). Conceivably, through retirements or electoral losses, the key Health and Environment Subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Cal.), could lose nearly 50 percent of its current Democratic members.

Here are some of the key elections to watch: Sharp always has a tough fight with this year's being complicated by his 120 bounced checks, but he has already defeated this year's opponent, William Frazier, three times; Sikorski's fight [22 ELR 10645] against a former television news anchorman, Rod Grams, will undoubtedly feature his 697 overdrafts at the House bank; McMillen lost most of his old district to a new African-American district and must fact Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.) on Gilchrest's turf on the Eastern shore; Studds has a battle in a new Massachusetts district without his base in New Bedford against two opponents, Dan Daly, a Republican and a former Republican-turned-Independent, Jon Bryan; and Kostmayer, who had 50 overdrafts, is in his traditional "close" election, this time against Jim Greenwood, a moderate state senator.

On the Republican side, Ritter, who hopes to be the third ranking Republican on the full Committee next year, faces a former Democratic state representative, Paul McHale, who quit the legislature to serve in the Gulf War and returned home a local hero. Bilirakis, a pro-life advocate, faces stiff competition from a pro-choice Democratic woman, Cheryl Knapp, who has been campaigning nonstop since the 1990 election.

The departure of the Committee's most senior Republican, Norm Lent, will change the leadership dynamic, as Lent had a reputation for working closely with Dingell. His likely replacement as ranking Republican, Rep. Carlos Moorhead (R-Cal.), may not be as willing to accommodate the strong-willed chairman. Unlike Lent, a Long Island congressman who is generally thought to be a moderate with scores in the mid-40s (on a 100 scale) from the League of Conservation Voters, Moorhead is more conservative, reflecting his constituency in suburban Los Angeles. The League of Conservation Voters rarely scores him above a 20. But Moorhead is hardworking and may surprise some in his new role on this powerful Committee.

On the Health and Environment Subcommittee, Chairman Waxman is no doubt thankful for the departure of his long-time nemesis and ranking Republican, Bill Dannemeyer, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in California. Dannemeyer's replacement as ranking Republican will probably be Rep. Tom Bliley (R-Va.), a respected Richmond conservative who has a reputation for working well with Democrats — perhaps because he was a Democrat himself once. The League of Conservation Voters generally scores him under 30, and his 1991 rating was zero.

The other subcommittee important to those interested in environmental legislation is the Transportation and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee chaired by Rep. Al Swift (D-Wash.). Unless its members choose other subcommittees, the membership should remain much the same. As noted above, ranking Republican Don Ritter of Pennsylvania, one of the few scientists/engineers in the House, does have an election contest. His defeat would open the way for Rep. Jack Fields (R-Tex.), a Houston conservative who rarely scores above 20 from the League of Conservation Voters and scored zero in 1991.

While most of the environmental focus in the House is on the Energy and Commerce Committee and the Dingell/Waxman biumverate, legislation affecting rivers, harbors, wetlands, and waterways — including oil and related water pollution — comes before the House Committee on Public Works and Transportation. Few committees in the House are likely to experience as much senior level change in the 103d Congress as will the Committee on Public Works and Transportation. Already, three of its five most senior Democrats have announced retirements, including chairman Robert Roe (D-N.J.), and Reps. Glenn Anderson (D-Cal.) and Henry Nowak (D-N.Y.), along with the senior Republican John Hammerschmidt (R-Ark.). The successor to Roe as full Committee Chairman is expected to be Rep. Norman Mineta (D-Cal.). Representative Bud Shuster (R-Pa.) will become the ranking Republican.

Norm Mineta of San Jose, California, is one of the "work horses" of the Democratic Leadership in the House, called on frequently to handle delicate tasks from the budget to the Central Intelligence Agency. Perhaps better known for his successful work to secure an apology and compensation for Japanese-Americans interned in World War II, Mineta currently chairs the Transportation Subcommittee. On environmental issues, the League of Conservation Voters consistently rates him in the 80s.

People will be forgiven for having assumed that Bud Shuster of Pennsylvania was already the ranking Republican on this Committee. His success at returning transportation dollars to his native state is legendary. He has a reputation for working well with Democrats to achieve his goals. The League of Conservation Voters generally rates him below 20, with a rating of zero in 1991.

Nowak's successor as chairman of the Water Resources Subcommittee is likely to be Rep. Doug Applegate (D-Ohio). A moderate from Steubenville, Ohio, with a reputation as a fighter for veterans on another committee, Applegate will shift gears in an effort to direct dollars back to his region. His environmental record is generally middle-of-the-road with the League of Conservation Voters scoring him in the 40s. Ironically, the ranking Republican on this Subcommittee, Tom Petri of Wisconsin, currently scores higher with environmentalists, with ratings in the mid-50s.

More turnover on the full Public Works and Transportation Committee can be expected with the departure of Reps. Gus Savage (D-Ill.), Joe Kolter (D-Pa.), and Ben Jones (D-Ga.). On the Democratic side, competitive elections are expected for Reps. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), Bob Borski (D-Pa.), William Lipinski (D-Ill.), Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), George Sangmeister (D-Ill.), Dick Swett (D-N.H.), Rosa DeLauro (D-Ct.), and Joan Kelly Horn (D-Mo.). Committee Republicans who expect tough opposition include Tom Petri (R-Wis.), Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), and Bill Zeliff (R-N.H.). In short, like the Energy and Commerce Committee, the Committee on Public Works and Transportation could have many new faces next year.

With so many new congressmen and congresswomen entering the 103d Congress this January, those on the outside who care about the details of environmental legislation will have their work cut out for them. With over one-quarter of the House new to Washington, as well as many new leaders on key committees, it will take some time to gear up for 1993. This is especially true if the Clinton/Gore ticket defeats Bush/Quayle, not only because it will take a new administration some time to put its people in key positions, but also because a Clinton administration is certain to send major environmental initiatives to Capitol Hill. Even with the reelection of President Bush, the reorganization of a new Congress traditionally takes two months. It may not be until March before the final committee assignments are made and the public knows the cast of congressional characters with initial responsibility for environmental bills.

Despite an uncertain beginning, thepressure for action on environmental measures will be great in 1993. The [22 ELR 10646] reauthorization of Superfund and the continuing battles over Clean Air Act implementation, solid waste issues, and clean water amendments will demand the attention of these congressional committees and the ultimate focus of every member of the 103d Congress.

The final shape of environmental legislation in 1993 depends as much on the outcome of the congressional elections this November as it does on the presidential election. The only sure prediction is that the next Congress is going to be a whole lot different than those in recent years. That puts a special burden on environmental lawyers, lobbyists, and advocates who wish to affect the outcome of legislation in 1993.